Wednesday, November 3, 2010

thank Professor Lang to Hefei lectures

 Thank Professor Lang to Hefei lectures, and today there are two issues, Professor Lang wants to exchange it. First, thanks to Professor Lang's concern on the Chinese economy, and particularly incisive analysis. These two days we all are discussing this issue, we CPPCC National People's Congress in meeting us, I wanted to please, Professor Lang, our price index rose too high, how do we put the price increases tied up with how people's income? Thank you! (15:33)

[Lang] I personally also very concerned about the two sessions. As for the inflation problem, frankly speaking, the inflation problem is not only our most critical issue of their own government, but also other countries of the most critical issue. The U.S. government does not concern U.S. inflation? It is still very concerned. Under consideration of inflation, which caused a substantial decline in the purchasing power of our residents. This is a serious problem, which is why the Central Government proposed tighter macro-control policy.

want to control inflation, to avoid the decline in the purchasing power of our residents. In this target level, I gave high. Because I also mean that. But the path selection is different. The government's choice is to rule by big cool inflation, but my advice is to treat inflation by warming. This is different. Including myself, while suppressing inflation and the strong ideas are the same. Next to go was of inflation, we have a substantial decline in purchasing power of residents of this phenomenon is not good news. I'll give you an example, we vigorously promote local development as the result of the composition of GDP so we have a great distortion. What is the status of our GDP? That is, inside the entire GDP, about 45-50% of investment in fixed assets. Advanced countries? Including the United States with Japan, 30% less. We spend how much? More than ten per cent. The United States? Seventy percent. We fixed investment is double the others, our consumption is the other half. We think again, such a low consumption, we produce so many products sold to? He did not get it completely consumed, you have to resort to exports. This resulted in, why do we exchange a lot of accumulation. Investment in the business environment in such a deterioration of the circumstances, it is bleeding foreign reserves accumulation output. We spend too inadequate, and so we have to bleed exports. Bleeding export the results to cause the accumulation trade surplus. Allows us to immediately enter the Exchange 1.5 trillion, too quickly. Inflation is the result? Like you just have to ask, inflation will further blow to consumer desires of people. Will allow us to continue down spending, and if we further decreased the consumption, in turn, is concerned, you have to export more products, or sell to it? Who help you consume it? So this is not simple to buy pork, to buy fruit problem. But further distorted the composition of GDP. This is very dangerous.

and the results do, as we long ago, foreign exchange accumulation. This is what we want to see the results. This is why the central government to increase our consumption, but you should pay attention to, consumer appeal alone is not enough to improve. Better social security system, we only willing to spend money. Poor social security system in the circumstances, you do not spend. Therefore, to improve Xiaofei volume is very complex, not a simple problem of inflation, but the entire social security system does not create good, so Xiaofei must continue to decline, creating a series of questions. (15:34)

[live guests] I want to ask a question, have been provided to improve the domestic business environment to solve the dual economic structure of the current existing problems. I have a question, Japan and Southeast Asia before the financial crisis, when the domestic asset prices have been rising, the difference is the exchange rate with the United States continues to widen. China is also in this situation, if only to change the business environment led to the current value of the assets of inflation, so prices are high. You in this regard is the external aspects of the problem, you can express your views? (15:40)

[Lang] ask your question very well, due to the small time today, I do not talk about this topic because the topic of a talk and also a couple of hours. I simply talk about the Asian financial crisis is not too easy, please note that the Asian financial crisis, Asia is But the Asian financial crisis, the four tigers total sales, the four little dragons on the remaining two or three, one or two, the Asian economy after the Asian financial crisis, largely disintegrated. What factors do you think? And I tell you, including all four tigers, including the Philippines, countries in the Asian financial crisis, accepted the U.S. assistance to the International Monetary Fund. The aid it, there are several important steps. (15:41)

[Lang] you listen: First, relax the requirements of the local government access to capital account; second, asked for the relaxation of fluctuations in the price of daily necessities; Third, relaxing the some government-controlled industry. You just accept the proposal, it means to eat poison. What to eat poison? When you let a necessity for the price deregulation, the water and energy prices rose sharply, causing the local people revolt. People for a riot, would make low-cost local entrepreneurs to sell the assets of foreign-funded enterprises. All of the Asian financial crisis, as long as the received assistance from the International Monetary Fund, we must accept the package. And the result is accepted by many enterprises to foreign investors. At that time South Korea is strongly resisted, so today, South Korean companies are so competitive, because South Korean companies and see far, Kande Tou. Today you do not look too simple to finance. I can tell you that 150 years ago by the Western powers to enter the Chinese ships and armament, today's powers to use financial warfare continue to enter China. But the premise of the financial war have to open foreign exchange market, the exchange rate must float, capital should be open and have a futures market. The stock futures market must have, which is slowly opening up, I have called for the reason. Because we do not have the fully open condition. I can only tell you so simple, do not look too simple to finance, finance is today's war. You all know that the RMB exchange rate, you do not listen to professor said, Wrong. What is the RMB exchange rate? Governments exchange rate is a means to achieve political ends,cheap UGG boots, called the exchange rate; it is a prelude to the international financial bonds. Did you think Soros is the level of the Chinese people? Clear your mind is, do not answer. This is the answer. (15:42)

[Moderator] reasons of timing, our last question. To see friends who still have questions? (15:44)

[live guests] I have two questions here about. First, how do you think of today, 365 and Hefei in Hefei hotline cooperation. Secondly, nowadays two topics you care about most is what topics? (15:45)

[Lang] First, they are not sure what I do cooperation. Second, two of the question too thin, so I can not answer. This problem is not, ask a bar. (15:45)

[live guests], Professor Lang Hello, I am Zhang Fei Anhui Traffic Radio reporter. We often read in the office and discuss your ideas, lack of investment in the current means of ordinary people, large number of people on my side last year, bought stocks, funds, I did not buy, but I am forced to buy a house. Anhui Traffic Radio as a mainstream audience, I'd like them to ask a question. And the car is driving the middle class people, they have a certain economic strength and social status, but also the ability to think independently. In (stocks, finance,) among the five investment direction, which point your prefer? Thank you! (15:46)

[Lang] I'd to answer your question, but the problem should correct that. Legal channels in the mainland only deposits, real estate and stocks, all of your foreign currency is very much in Hong Kong, New Zealand in Hong Kong currency deposits, the Canadian currency deposits, or you can buy a European fund, American funds can be. Now that financial management. U.S. dollar devaluation policy is six months. In my last year's recommendation, I recommend you to buy Canadian dollars and euro deposits, will not hold U.S. dollars or Hong Kong dollars. This would hold good news for U.S. fluctuations. But this can not be done in the Mainland. You want me today, in the three recommended a last resort option, I think I'm conscience of hard security. These all have problems.

the only option we have a few inside to find the least bad, not to find the best; we are faced with such choices. The current business environment in the rapid deterioration of investment today, it is difficult to open three options I have. Because I lack of confidence, I can not say. If I could say a lot in Hong Kong. I would urge everyone to buy Canadian dollars at this time. But I can not do in the mainland, my ability is limited. (15:47)

[live guests], Professor Lang Hello, I was engaged in manufacturing household appliances, and I ask you a question now facing us is still very difficult, after the hope which is not very clear . But I think if we continue to have something cold to do so there is still hope if we continue to do in the end. You want to talk about in this regard. (15:48)

[Lang] that I tell you, you are wrong. This is my style of Professor Lang, I can not speak good words. I say this, you sound very sad, but if you are doing the manufacturing family, I will tell you that you life more difficult tomorrow, and continues to worsen, you can not be improved. If you can not go today, tomorrow will only be worse, not better. Do not misunderstand you will be better tomorrow, will not. Because you are a home appliance manufacturing. (15:48)

[Lang] is the case today, the international mainstream, that is, M-type society has slowly formed. What do you mean? As investment pipeline serious problem, so from Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, and so created a national phenomenon worthy of our attention. That is a lot of the middle class disappears. Rather than the friend asked, the rise of the middle class, in the future what will happen, how. I say, this concept is wrong. U.S., Hong Kong, Japan, the middle class by 5% -10% annual rate of a large number of disappeared, so become what situation? Disappearance of the middle is a large number M, a substantial increase in poverty, the rich increased significantly. Become very extreme.

our Chinese community has slowly entered the M-shaped society; and this is why the central government put forward such a short time to people-centered thinking. I think the meaning is very significant. Of course, they are not the so-called M-shaped society oriented. M-shaped society is the mainstream of the world, not only is China's problem is the issue around the world. M-shaped society worthy of our attention, more worthy of our vigilance. I ask in the analysis things, do not be mistaken with a token, saying: This saying is not true. Under the M-shaped society, the middle class largely evaporated. This problem is more serious. Thank you! (15:49)

[live guests]

I listened to your lecture today, I asked my business itself may be the problem. Our business a few years ago, in Hefei invest in a home appliances factory, the product may be the original of this positioning is exports. (15:51)

[Lang] would be very difficult. (15:51)

[live guests] right. With the deterioration of the investment environment, in particular the impact of various aspects of the exchange rate, 2007 exchange rate brought about by the loss of nearly 400 million U.S. dollars. Later, we adjusted the marketing ideas, is the face of the country. Although we are very short development company, the face of the domestic market competitiveness is not strong, but also keep up to product development. Late last year, we set a strategy, which we do business a cold chain, but the connections represent a significant factor. Also the development of domestic market competition is basically about us, we plan to 2008 on such a project, the investment probably more than 1 million. Professor Lang heard such a talk, I would like to ask, on our business, you think to vote this item, or to more than one million of this investment money to invest in real estate. (15:52)

[Lang] asked you a question I know your answer. As you stand up and I know what questions you ask. (15:53)

[live guests] as our own is concerned, we want this industry. Because we have invested three billion the previous, if not, perhaps enterprises are facing a crisis. But as our own, we would like to develop industry. (15:54)

[Lang] I ask you a word. I have my position, as often is good for you personally, but it is public speaking, I did not tell the public, or do you do the real estate industry. But your next question, you need to invest a billion do not need to continue to develop new products? I told you that, of course, I'm in front of three million is how my investment is unclear. At this stage, the entrepreneurs, I advise you to reconsider your words: Investment is not being paid in the past, and has investments can not be taken into account, and you want to consider this a million, you heard my speech, you should not continue to invest. I advise you say is: Do you think the current domestic economic problems to solve, is warming. I would like to ask, what is your plan Warming? (15:55)

[Lang] The government is not anxious what you anxious? I can not speak, you ask, it's useless. This level is the two of us should not be discussed because it did not listen to. (15:55)

[Moderator] Let us once again with warm applause to thank Professor Lang wonderful speech. I declare that the property now home network, Hefei hotline 365 strategic investment cooperation signing ceremony and the 2008 Forum of China to solve the successful conclusion of the New Year, here again, thank you for coming; Thank you, bye! (15:56)

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